A Federal Government-backed agribusiness policy committee has recommended the formal closure of current rice import windows, citing falling food inflation and evidence that Nigeria’s rice surplus is being driven largely by high import volumes rather than domestic production capacity.
The recommendation comes as Nigerians spend over N1trillion, importing about 2.4 million metric tonnes of rice into the country. Using global benchmark prices published by S&P Global Platts, the scale of Nigeria’s rice imports in 2025 points to a substantial foreign exchange outflow, though the figures are only indicative estimates and not the actual import cost.
At Thailand’s assessed price of about US$370 per tonne for five per cent broken white rice, importing 2.4 million metric tonnes would amount to an estimated US$888 million, which converts to roughly N1.26 trillion at the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market exchange rate of N1,418.95 to the dollar as of January 26, 2026.
Platts data showed that Indian 5% broken white rice was cheaper at about US$347 per tonne, making it the lowest-priced option among major Asian exporters at the time. On that basis, the same 2.4 million tonnes would be valued at an estimated US$832.8m, equivalent to about N1.18 trillion at the prevailing exchange rate.
However, these calculations are based strictly on free-on-board prices and the official Nigerian Forex Exchange Market (NFEM) rate and are meant to provide context, not actual transaction values, for the 2.4 million metric tonnes of rice imported into Nigeria in 2025.
With about 2.4 million metric tonnes of rice imported into the country, the committee recommended that the Federal Government should “formally close current rice import windows, given that food inflation has fallen below 14%”.
The recommendation was contained in the communiqué of the Second Cycle Meeting of the National Agribusiness Policy Mechanism, held in Abuja in December 2025.
The National Agribusiness Policy Mechanism was officially launched in May 2025, as a data-driven framework to coordinate Nigeria’s food and agriculture policies.
It is coordinated by the Presidential Food Systems Coordinating Unit under the Presidency. The policy committee brings together federal ministries and agencies, state governments, and development partners involved in agriculture and food systems.
The communiqué was issued by the Presidential Food Systems Coordinating Unit, which coordinates the National Agribusiness Policy Mechanism, following endorsements from participating ministries, agencies, state governments, and development partners.
According to the communiqué, the meeting reviewed Nigeria’s seasonal food balance and agreed on policy actions for consideration by the National Council on Agriculture and Food Security and onward transmission to the National Economic Council and the Federal Executive Council.
Data presented at the meeting showed that Nigeria recorded a technically-positive food balance across major staple crops by December 2025.
However, the communiqué noted that rice and wheat supply security remained predominantly dependent on imports, showing structural vulnerabilities in domestic production systems.
“Nigeria records a technically-positive food balance across major staple crops. However, rice and wheat supply security remains predominantly dependent on imports, underscoring continued structural vulnerabilities”, the communiqué read.
According to the indicative national food balance sheet, Nigeria produced 6.07 million metric tonnes of rice in 2025, while imports stood at 2.4 million metric tonnes. With no reserves and no exports recorded for rice, total availability reached 8.66 million metric tonnes, resulting in a surplus of approximately 1.1 million metric tonnes, as the supply of rice exceeded demand in December 2025.
The committee observed that the rice surplus was largely sustained by historically high import levels rather than improvements in domestic production capacity. This, it said, distinguished rice from other staples with positive balances that were still facing estimated supply gaps due to production constraints.
“Despite positive balances, domestic production remains insufficient to fully meet national demand, with estimated supply gaps of approximately three million metric tonnes in maize, 600,000 MT in soybean, 400,000 MT in sorghum, and one million MT in wheat. Rice shows a surplus of approximately 1.1 million MT, largely sustained by historically high import levels rather than domestic production capacity”, the communiqué read.
In its assessment, the meeting linked the continued inflow of imported rice to earlier policy decisions taken when food inflation exceeded 40%. Participants noted that import windows were opened as a response to acute inflationary pressures, but that the subsequent easing of food inflation below 14% altered the policy context.
As a result, under the imports lever of its four-pillar framework, the committee recommended that current rice import windows be formally-closed, given the changed inflation dynamics. It also agreed that any future activation of the import lever should be synchronised with price stabilisation mechanisms to protect domestic producers.
Beyond headline balance figures, the communiqué drew on findings from two structured field surveys conducted across 13 pilot states, covering a total of 33,507 farmers. These included a post-harvest wet-season performance survey and a dry-season farmer intention survey for the 2025/2026 cycle.
The wet-season survey revealed that rice farmers, alongside maize producers, experienced a profitability squeeze following the opening of import windows. While production costs remained static or increased due to higher fertilizer, energy, and irrigation expenses, output prices declined sharply, leading to negative gross margins for many producers.
“Production costs remained static or increased, while output prices declined sharply, resulting in negative gross margins, particularly for maize and rice”, the communiqué read.
Participants observed that the import lever was activated without a concurrent stabilisation mechanism. In particular, the absence of a triggered Guaranteed Minimum Price meant there was no effective price floor to protect farmers when market prices fell below cost-of-production thresholds, especially in rice and maize markets.
The communiqué also highlighted structural productivity constraints affecting rice production. Weak extension delivery was identified as a key factor, with the extension agent-to-farmer ratio estimated at approximately one to 6,466. This was said to limit the adoption of improved seeds and good agronomic practices.
As a result of these pressures, the wet-season survey recorded a 7.9% decline in rice production, alongside declines in maize and sorghum output. In contrast, soybean production increased by about 38% reflecting a broader migration by farmers towards export-oriented crops with more predictable margins.
Findings from the dry-season farmer intention survey reinforced these concerns. The survey showed that 10.6% of rice farmers planned to scale back production during the 2025/2026 dry season, while a larger share indicated intentions to focus on vegetables, wheat, and export-oriented crops.
The committee cautioned that without targeted interventions, these shifts could translate into future supply risks for major staples, including rice, despite the current import-driven surplus. These risks were described as being compounded by persistent challenges related to irrigation access, input affordability, and financing.
Participants further acknowledged that current national food balance estimates remained largely simulation-based and should be treated as indicative. They stressed the urgent need to integrate data across domestic production, reserves, imports, and exports to transition towards high-precision, sovereign-grade food balance reporting.
As part of the agreed next steps, the Presidential Food Systems Coordinating Unit was mandated to prepare a technical memo to the National Council on Agriculture and Food Security, recommending the cessation of rice imports.
The unit was also tasked with liaising with relevant ministries and subnational governments to confirm plans for the strategic mop-up of reserves from the upcoming harvest.
The meeting further resolved to convene focal persons across ministries and states to align dry-season implementation and to launch a farmer profitability monitoring tool to track price-cost dynamics during the season.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that food inflation eased sharply from 26.08% in January 2025 to 10.84% in December 2025. This represents a decline of 15.24 percentage points over the year, showing a sustained moderation in food price pressures through 2025.
It was reported that rice farmers raised the alarm over the collapse of Nigeria’s rice industry, attributing the shutdown of local mills and mass job losses to cheap imports, insecurity, and lack of government support.
In a statement, Chairman of the Competitive African Rice Forum Nigeria, Peter Dama, lamented the closure of processing facilities and the devastating impact on workers. He said, “Our mills have been shut down. We have retrenched workers. Is this the future for us in this country?”
He recalled a time when Nigeria’s rice production reached unprecedented levels, hitting eight million metric tonnes and meeting much of the national demand without complaints from Nigerians. Dama linked the industry’s decline to escalating insecurity, which severely disrupted farming activities.
He also spoke on the production-consumption gap, noting that “Our production capacity was approximately 5.3 million metric tonnes, while consumption stood at 8.5 million metric tonnes. But now, production has declined further”.
Highlighting the unfair competition from imports, Dama said, “Imported rice is cheaper because importers evade taxes and receive subsidies. They bring rice into Nigeria at prices as low as US$10 to US$20 per tonne.”
It was also reported that Nigeria’s agricultural import bill soared to N2.22 trillion in the first half of 2025, drawing strong criticism from farmers, rice millers, and stakeholders, who argue that the Federal Government’s policies are undermining local production and worsening food insecurity.
The stakeholders also criticised the recent order by President Bola Tinubu to reduce food prices. On September 11, 2025, it was reported that Tinubu ordered a Federal Executive Council committee to further crash the prices of food items across the country.
The Minister of State for Agriculture and Food Security, Sabi Abdullahi, stated this in Abuja, while presenting a paper at a one-day capacity-building workshop for journalists covering the Senate. He said the President’s order would be enforced to further crash prices of food items by ensuring the safe passage of products through various routes across the country.
Dama faulted the government’s approach, saying it risks alienating private operators and discouraging investment. “The President is dealing with private organisations and companies. You do not just come out and give an order to crash prices. It does not work that way”.
“At best, the government should have called stakeholders in the transport and agric sectors, discuss with them, and provided subsidies.
Dama warned that persistent importation and lack of subsidies were forcing many farmers to abandon agriculture. “If you don’t provide inputs and only make pronouncements, farmers will quit. We are not in an autocratic government. Stakeholders must be carried along”, he stated.
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